With the U.S.
unemployment rate currently at 9.1%, the 7.8% rate in the state of
Idaho seems generously low, though this is a 22-year high.
Unemployment in Bonner County is still lower than the national
level at 8.6%, with neighboring Kootenai County at 8%. The summer
tourist business is experiencing a slow start, but with gas prices
low and people looking to make more regional trips the vacation
norm being forecasted, our summer season should hold its own. This
means that at least a few more summer hires to bring the rate down
even further. Construction is also moving forward, though not
booming by any measure. Certainly the North Idaho region is faring
better than our biggest neighbor: Spokane. They have an even
higher number of unemployed than the national average, approaching
double digits at 9.4%.
Even our real
estate market is doing considerably better than last year. With
homes in every other county in Idaho losing value in the last
year, Bonner County has had a modest increase of just over 1%. Our
pending sales as of today are at 167, though 115 of those are for
homes and condos. With 282 closed sales since January 1, 2009, we
are on target to match or exceed the 907 closed sales from last
year. The hardest sell this year seems to be land parcels, much
because there are fewer banks making land loans, and the ones that
are continue to require stellar credit and 25 - 30% down.
Bottom line is
that while we are not jumping up and down for joy in Sandpoint, we
aren't as bad off as the rest of the country. In fact, according
to Economy.com and Moody's, Idaho will be one of five states that
will lead America out of the recession by the fourth quarter 2009.
Read the article below.
Five States That Will Lead US Out of Recession
Posted By:
Cindy Perman | Writer
cnbc.com
03 Jun
2009 | 03:03 PM ET
If
you’re not prepared to go to
Australia
to ride out the recovery, great news! A new report shows the five
U.S. states poised to lead the nation out of recession.
You might want to get out your hiking boots and trail mix because
most of the states are out in the northwest:
Colorado,
Idaho,
Oregon,
Texas
and Washington.
Those are the states where job growth is expected to sprout first
— in the fourth quarter of this year — according to Moody’s Economy.com,
which conducted the survey.
The criteria for the survey included the labor market, income,
credit quality/banking, real estate and consumer spending. Moody's
conducts a regional employment forecast as well as an "adversity
index"
to gauge the status of state economies.
In the
case of the northwestern states, the reason they got picked is
because of their high concentration of high-tech companies,
Moody's economist Andrew Gledhill said. Analysts expect a pick-up
in tech spending as the recession gets going.
"[W]e feel
that pent-up demand for high-tech equipment that has been
furthered in part by the financial crisis could benefit states
with these kinds of links," Gledhill said.
As for
Texas , it was the oil industry: The strength of the industry made
the lone-star state one of the last states to join the recession,
and therefore will make it among the first out.
Housing
was another factor: All five states had better-than-average
household credit, which left them in shallower holes than other
states, like, say, California .
Don't
worry, California . You'll be back.
And, in
case you’re wondering where your state is in the lineup, Moody’s
has come up with the next waves of states to start showing signs
of recovery.
The second wave, expected to hit in the first quarter of 2010,
includes a lot of southern states—and Dakotas . That group
includes:
Alabama,
Georgia,
Nebraska,New Mexico,
North Carolina,
North Dakota
and South Dakota.
This group
had relatively minor recessions that affected cyclical industries
like manufacturing, Gledhill said, and should be able turn those
minor recessions into minor recoveries when the economy starts to
turn.
"Plus,
housing has not been as much a factor for some of this group,
which is such a hindrance elsewhere," Gledhill explained.
The third wave, expected to show growth in the second quarter, is
all across the map. Those states are:
Alaska,
Arkansas,
Iowa,
New Hampshire,
South Carolina,
Tennessee and
Wyoming.
If your
state wasn’t mentioned — sorry — it’s in the remaining 31, which
isn't likely to start popping until the third quarter of next
year.
The most
sluggish growth is in the northeast (ahem, Wall Street), midwest
(*cough*cough* GM ), and Florida (enough said).
Gledhill
said the impact of the housing crisis could also be a factor in
California , Florida , Arizona and Nevada , causing those states
to be slow to recover.
There was
only one state that, as of the end of March, still had enough
growth that it wasn’t technically in recession.
Down—But
Not—Under.
Australia, dubbed
the best place to ride out the recession, really dodged a bullet
on this one: Its economy actually grew last quarter, meaning it
never officially entered recession,
Reuters reports.
The stock market
was up all week. MSNBC reported on March 18, 2009 that "Stocks had
their fifth advance in six days Tuesday after a surprisingly
strong report on home construction and building permit
applications. Since the rally began last week, the Dow is up 849
points, or 13 percent."
Bonner County is
the only county in the whole state of Idaho that is not a
declining market for housing prices, according to Jack Dyck, VP of
Mountain West Bank.
Locally, home
prices are going back up, unemployment is still lower than other
areas, and is historically normal.
On Sunday Ben
Bernanke took the bull by the horns, sounding very reassuring on
60 Minutes, and the Fed will be releasing their latest guidance
today.
Another nice
boost is the reappearance of cheap airline tickets. With gas
prices being so much lower, airline flights have finally followed
suit.
There has been so
much bad news lately it was nice to note that CBS News has changed
their motto to "CBS News is Very Good News."
How about the
flack over AIG? Didn't the majority of this money go out during
the Bush Administration? While the current administration owns
responsibility for 30 billion more going to this behemoth, the
lack of oversight started with the previous congress and
president. President Obama's Geitner made the same mistake.
Obama recently
unveiled his plans for helping small businesses, and stimulus
money is already hitting North Idaho with the hiring of
firefighters to help keep the danger levels down.
Add to that our
unemployment rates for Idaho are among the lowest in the West, and
Bonner County is the lowest in the region.
Good news? You
Bet!
Tomlinson Sandpoint
Sotheby's International Realty
200 Main Street
Sandpoint, Idaho
208-610-1384
800-282-6880
Gary
Lirette,
REALTOR®
& host of the radio shows North Idaho Business
as well as North Idaho Arts on KSPT & KBFI in
Sandpoint & Bonners Ferry. When you need your real estate questions
answered...
Gary Lirette & Jed Sigman, your 24/7 N Idaho REALTORS®
for real estate in Sandpoint, Hope, Sagle, Schweitzer Mountain
Ski Resort, Naples, Careywood, Athol, Cocolalla, Ponderay,
Kootenai, and all parts of North Idaho.
